The Past, Present & Future of Home Prices

The Past, Present & Future of Home Prices | Simplifying The Market

CoreLogic released their most current Home Price Index last week. In the report, they revealed home appreciation in three categories: percentage appreciation over the last year, over the last month and projected over the next twelve months.

Here are state maps for each category: 

The Past – home appreciation over the last 12 months

The Past, Present & Future of Home Prices | Simplifying The Market

The Present – home appreciation over the last month

The Past, Present & Future of Home Prices | Simplifying The Market

The Future – home appreciation projected over the next 12 months

The Past, Present & Future of Home Prices | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Homes across the country are appreciating at different rates. If you plan on relocating to another state and are waiting for your home to appreciate more, you need to know that the home you will buy in another state may be appreciating even faster.

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Mortgage Rates by Decade Compared to Today [INFOGRAPHIC]

Mortgage Rates by Decade Compared to Today [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights:

  • The interest rate you secure for your mortgage greatly influences your monthly housing costs.
  • In the 1980s, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged in the high 12s making the monthly principal and interest payment over $2,000.
  • Interest rates are still at historic lows; this is a great time lock in your housing cost and protect yourself from increasing rents, or refinance your current mortgage.

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Why We Need More Newly Constructed Homes

Why We Need More Newly Constructed Homes | Simplifying The Market

The number of new home sales is far off historic norms. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just reported that the percentage of all house sales that were newly constructed homes has fallen to the lowest numbers in forty years. Here is a graph showing the percentages:

Why We Need More Newly Constructed Homes | Simplifying The Market

This should come as no surprise as the number of new housing starts has fallen dramatically over the last several years:

Why We Need More Newly Constructed Homes | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

We need more new construction for two reasons:

  1. It will relieve some of the pent-up buying demand that is causing price appreciation to continue to increase well above historic norms.
  2. It will give better opportunities to many current homeowners who want to sell but can’t find an adequate home to move in to.

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Strong Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace Inventory of Homes for Sale

Strong Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace Inventory of Homes for Sale | Simplifying The Market

The price of any item is determined by the supply of that item, as well as the market demand. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for their monthly REALTORS Confidence Index.

Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between Seller Traffic (supply) and Buyer Traffic (demand).

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would your rate buyer traffic in your area?”

Strong Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace Inventory of Homes for Sale | Simplifying The Market

The darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes in that area. Only four states came in with a weak or moderate demand level.

Seller Supply

The Index also asked: “How would your rate seller traffic in your area?”

As you can see from the map below, the majority of the country has weak Seller Traffic, meaning there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the buyers who are out looking for their dream homes.

Strong Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace Inventory of Homes for Sale | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Looking at the maps above, it is not hard to see why prices are appreciating in many areas of the country. Until the supply of homes for sale starts to meet the buyer demand, prices will continue to increase. If you are debating listing your home for sale, let’s get together and discuss the demand in our area.

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Think You Should FSBO? 5 Reasons to Think Again!

Think You Should FSBO? 5 Reasons to Think Again! | Simplifying The Market

In today’s market, with home prices rising and a lack of inventory, some homeowners may consider trying to sell their home on their own, known in the industry as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO). There are several reasons why this might not be a good idea for the vast majority of sellers.

Here are the top five reasons:

1. Exposure to Prospective Buyers

Recent studies have shown that 88% of buyers search online for a home. That is in comparison to only 21% looking at print newspaper ads. Most real estate agents have an internet strategy to promote the sale of your home. Do you? 

2. Results Come from the Internet

Where did buyers find the home they actually purchased?

  • 44% on the internet
  • 33% from a Real Estate Agent
  • 9% from a yard sign
  • 1% from newspapers

The days of selling your house by just putting up a sign and putting it in the paper are long gone. Having a strong internet strategy is crucial. 

3. There Are Too Many People to Negotiate With

Here is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate if you decide to For Sale By Owner:

  • The buyer who wants the best deal possible
  • The buyer’s agent who solely represents the best interest of the buyer
  • The buyer’s attorney (in some parts of the country)
  • The home inspection companies, which work for the buyer and will almost always find some problems with the house
  • The appraiser if there is a question of value

4. FSBOing Has Become More And More Difficult

The paperwork involved in selling and buying a home has increased dramatically as industry disclosures and regulations have become mandatory. This is one of the reasons that the percentage of people FSBOing has dropped from 19% to 8% over the last 20+ years.

The 8% share represents the lowest recorded figure since NAR began collecting data in 1981.

5. You Net More Money When Using an Agent

Many homeowners believe that they will save the real estate commission by selling on their own. Realize that the main reason buyers look at FSBOs is because they also believe they can save the real estate agent’s commission. The seller and buyer can’t both save the commission.

Studies have shown that the typical house sold by the homeowner sells for $210,000, while the typical house sold by an agent sells for $249,000. This doesn’t mean that an agent can get $39,000 more for your home, as studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points. However, it does show that selling on your own might not make sense.

Bottom Line

Before you decide to take on the challenges of selling your house on your own, sit with a real estate professional in your marketplace and see what they have to offer.

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Lack of Existing Home Sales Inventory Impacting Sales [INFOGRAPHIC]

Lack of Existing Home Sales Inventory Impacting Sales [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights:

  • Existing home inventory is down 10.1% from last year.
  • A lack of inventory explains the modest increase in home sales (0.8% year-over-year) despite strong buyer demand.
  • Existing home prices increased 5.1% year-over-year, which is directly related to the lack of inventory.

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Home Sales Expected to Increase Nicely in 2017

Home Sales Expected to Increase Nicely in 2017 | Simplifying The Market

The National Association of Realtors, The Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are all projecting that home sales will increase in 2017. Here is a chart showing what each entity is projecting in sales for this year and the next.

Home Sales Expected to Increase Nicely in 2017 | Simplifying The Market

As we can see, each is projecting sizable increases in home sales next year. If you have considered selling your house recently, now may be the time to put it on the market.

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Why We All Need A ‘Phil Dunphy’ On Our Side

Why We All Need A ‘Phil Dunphy’ On Our Side | Simplifying The Market

Whether or not you’ve ever seen an episode of Modern Family, or know who Phil Dunphy’s character is, the concept of knowing that you have someone in your corner who is looking out for your best interests is something we all want.

When it comes to buying a home, whether you are a rookie homebuyer or have gone through the process many times, having a local real estate expert who is well versed in the neighborhood you are looking to move into, and the trends of the area, should be your goal.

For those who aren’t familiar, the character Phil Dunphy is a Realtor with a huge heart who always strives to do the best for his family and his clients.

In one recent episode, Phil even shared the oath that he created and holds himself to:

“On my honor, I promise to aid in man’s quest for shelter, to recognize I’m not just in the business of houses — I’m in the business of dreams in the shape of houses. To disclose all illegal additions, shoddy construction, murders, and ghosts. And to put my clients’ needs before my own.” 

While this might seem silly, and it was definitely written with humor in mind, the themes of helping someone achieve the American Dream and putting a clients’ needs above your own are not to be taken lightly.

Bottom Line

When you make the decision to enter the housing market, as either a buyer or a seller, make sure you look for an agent who exemplifies these values and will help you through every step of the process.

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Foreclosure Rate Drops to Pre-Crisis Levels [INFOGRAPHIC]

Foreclosure Rate Drops to Pre-Crisis Levels [INFOGRAPHIC] | Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights:

  • Only 2.9% of homes are in serious delinquency, down 17.1% from July 2015.
  • This is the 57th consecutive month with a year-over-year decline.
  • The national foreclosure rate has returned to August 2007 levels, at only 0.9%.

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5 Stats that Prove the Real Estate Market is Getting Stronger

5 Stats that Prove the Real Estate Market is Getting Stronger | Simplifying The Market

Whenever there is talk about an improving housing market, some begin to show concern that we may be headed toward another housing bubble that will be followed by a crash similar to the one we saw last decade.

Here are five data points that show the housing market will continue to recover, and that a new housing crisis is not about to take shape.

1) Mortgage availability is increasing, but is nowhere near the levels we saw in 2004-2006.

A buyer’s chances of being approved for a mortgage have increased over the last three years; That’s good news for the market. This is not a precursor to another challenge, as many experts maintain that it is still too difficult for many buyers to attain house financing.

As Jonathan Smoke, the Chief Economist of realtor.com, recently explained:

“The havoc during the last cycle was the result…of speculation fueled by loose credit. That’s the exact opposite of what we have today.”

2) The Housing Affordability Index, which measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home, based on the most recent price and income data. The current index shows that it is more affordable to buy a home today than at any other time between 1990 and 2008. With median incomes finally beginning to rise, houses should continue to remain affordable and housing demand should remain strong.

3) Home prices are well within historic norms. Prices have increased substantially over the last several years; However, those increases followed the housing crash of 2008 and national prices are still not back to 2006 levels. If there were no bubble (and subsequent bust), today’s prices would actually be lower than if they were measured by historic appreciation levels from 1987-1999.

4) Demand for housing, as measured by new household formations, is growing. The Urban Land Institute projects that 5.95 million new households will be formed over the next three years. Even if the homeownership rate drops to 60%, that would be over 3.5 million new homeowners entering the market.

5) New home starts are finally beginning to increase. This helps eliminate the number one challenge in the industry – lack of inventory. And it does so in two ways:

  1. Some first time buyers will, in fact, purchase a newly constructed home.
  2. Many current homeowners will move-up (or move-down) to a new construction and then put their current home on the market.

This means that there will be an increase in both new construction and existing home inventories.

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