The Top Reason to List Your House For Sale Now!

The Top Reason to List Your House For Sale Now! | Simplifying The Market

If you are debating listing your house for sale this year, here is the #1 reason not to wait! 

Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace the Supply of Homes For Sale

The National Association of REALTORS’ (NAR) Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun recently commented on the inventory shortage:

“With demand holding firm and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale.

Realtors are acknowledging, with increasing frequency lately, that buyers continue to be frustrated by the tense competition and lack of affordable homes for sale in their market.”

The latest Existing Home Sales Report shows that there is currently a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale. This remains lower than the 6-month supply necessary for a normal market and 5.8% lower than June 2015.

The chart below details the year-over-year inventory shortages experienced over the last 12 months:

Housing Supply Year-Over-Year | Simplifying The Market

Anything less than a six-month supply is considered a “Seller’s Market”.

Bottom Line

Let’s get together and discuss the supply conditions in your neighborhood to be able to assist you in gaining access to the buyers who are ready, willing and able to buy now!

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Brexit 1 Month Later: The Impact on Mortgage Rates

Brexit 1 Month Later: The Impact on Mortgage Rates | My KCM

Just over a month ago, the United Kingdom decided to withdraw from the European Union in a decision commonly known as Brexit. At that time there was a lot of speculation on how that decision would impact the U.S. residential mortgage market. Today, we want to look at the impact of the first 30 days.

Most believed that the Brexit decision would drive mortgage rates down and keep them down for some time. As CoreLogic reported:

 “First-time buyers can count on continued low mortgage rates to help with affordability issues. Similarly, re-setting adjustable rate loans will have less of a rate shock, and in some cases may even go down.”

What has actually happened?

Initially, rates did fall. However, Freddie Mac has reported that rates have stabilized and have actually increased marginally each of the last two weeks. This prompted Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Beckett to say:

“Post-Brexit volatility tapered off over the last two weeks, allowing interest rates to bounce back a bit from their near-record 30-year mortgage rate lows.”

And, Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon believes rates will continue to increase:

“Given we expect Brexit will have a minimal impact on the U.S. economy, we see no reason to change our forecast for mortgage rates to reach 3.85% by the end of this year, and 5.0% by the middle of 2018.”

For now, it appears that the impact of Brexit on the U.S. housing market was not as dramatic as some thought it could be.

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Is Now the Right Time to Put Your House on the Market …or Not?

Is Now the Right Time to Put Your House on the Market …or Not? | Simplifying The Market

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. The report revealed that this May’s numbers weren’t quite as good as the year before:

“With last month’s decline, the index reading is still the third highest in the past year, but declined year-over-year for the first time since August 2014.”

The mainstream media ran headlines highlighting that the index had dropped for the first time in two years. Many read this as an indication that the housing market must be slowing down.

If you were thinking that now may be the perfect time to put your house on the market, these reports may have caused you some concern. We want to alleviate that concern today.

Though it is true that the index dropped in last month’s report, let’s take a closer look at the numbers. Below is a graph of the index since January 2014. We can see that the index has increased every month over the last eighteen months, leading up to this past May.

Is Now the Right Time to Put Your House on the Market …or Not? | Simplifying The Market

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explained that it wasn’t a slowing of the market that caused the index to slip, but instead a lack of housing inventory:

“Total housing inventory at the end of each month has remarkably decreased year-over-year now for an entire year. There are simply not enough homes coming onto the market to catch up with demand.”

Here is a graph depicting the situation Yun was referencing:

Is Now the Right Time to Put Your House on the Market …or Not? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

Did the latest numbers from the Pending Home Sales Index cause you to question if now is a good time to put your house on the market? If anything, it indicated the exact opposite: that this may be the perfect time to sell!!

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4 Reasons to Buy This Summer!

4 Reasons to Buy This Summer! | Simplifying The Market

Summer is here! The temperature isn’t the only thing heating up right now, so too is the housing market in many areas of the country! Here are four great reasons to consider buying a home today instead of waiting.

1. Prices Will Continue to Rise

CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index reports that home prices have appreciated by 6.2% over the last 12 months. The same report predicts that prices will continue to increase at a rate of 5.3% over the next year. The Home Price Expectation Survey polls a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. Their most recent report projects home values to appreciate by more than 3.2% a year for the next 5 years.

The bottom in home prices has come and gone. Home values will continue to appreciate for years. Waiting no longer makes sense.

2. Mortgage Interest Rates Are Projected to Increase 

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have remained around 4%. Most experts predict that they will begin to rise over the next 12 months. The Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac & the National Association of Realtors are in unison, projecting that rates will be up almost a full percentage point by this time next year.

An increase in rates will impact YOUR monthly mortgage payment. A year from now, your housing expense will increase if a mortgage is necessary to buy your next home. 

3. Either Way You are Paying a Mortgage

As a paper from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University explains:

“Households must consume housing whether they own or rent. Not even accounting for more favorable tax treatment of owning, homeowners pay debt service to pay down their own principal while households that rent pay down the principal of a landlord plus a rate of return. That’s yet another reason owning often does—as Americans intuit—end up making more financial sense than renting.”

4. It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. It appears that both are on the rise.

But what if they weren’t? Would you wait?

Look at the actual reason you are buying and decide whether it is worth waiting. Whether you want to have a great place for your children to grow up, you want your family to be safer or you just want to have control over renovations, maybe now is the time to buy.

If the right thing for you and your family is to purchase a home this year, buying sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings.

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3 Reasons to Buy Luxury Property THIS Year!!

3 Reasons to Buy Luxury Property THIS Year!! | Simplifying The Market

For that reason, prices haven’t skyrocketed as they have in the lower and mid-tier markets. This, coupled with sensational mortgage rates, means that this may be the perfect time to purchase the luxury property you have always desired.

Let’s break it down into the three major reasons to act now:

1. There are more homes from which to choose

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, inventory in the upper end is increasing, while it is decreasing at the lower and mid-tier price ranges. Here is a graph showing the average increase/decrease in inventory for the first four months of this year as compared to last year:

3 Reasons to Buy Luxury Property THIS Year!! | Simplifying The Market

2. Prices are becoming more reasonable

In a separate article, the Wall Street Journal also talked about prices in the luxury market. They explained that downward price adjustments have been more common in the luxury market than in markets with lower prices. They went on to say:

“The growing number of price cuts suggests luxury-home sellers are becoming more realistic about property values as sales have slowed, said several real-estate veterans.”

Not only will you have more to choose from, but you may also be able to get the property at a reduced price.

3. Mortgage rates are at historic lows

In the past, one of the drawbacks to purchasing a luxury property was the larger mortgage rate on “jumbo” loans which are often required on high end properties.

However, HSH.com just revealed that jumbo rates just set new record lows:

“While conforming fixed-rate mortgages eased a little this week, 30-year fixed-rate jumbos declined enough to break into new record low territory (3.66%), besting the previous low set in April by two basis points.”

Bottom Line

More choices, better prices and historically low mortgage rates may make this the perfect time for you to own one of those luxury properties you and your family have always fantasized about.

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BREXIT: What’s the FIXIT for U.S. Home Buyers and Sellers?

BREXIT: What’s the FIXIT for U.S. Home Buyers and Sellers? | Simplifying The Market

Now that much of the dust has settled and the panic has waned, let’s take a look at what impact Britain’s exit from the European Union may have on the U.S. housing market.

The most immediate impact of Brexit will be on mortgage interest rates. Interest rates have remained at historic lows for the last several years. Contrary to what many experts believed, rates have remained low throughout the first half of 2016.

Possible impact of Brexit on mortgage rates?

In a recent article, the Washington Post explained:

“Brexit has spawned the recent bout of volatility in global financial markets. That has anxious investors scurrying for safety — and few assets are safer than U.S. Treasuries. High demand for government debt pulls down interest rates.

That all translates into ultra-low mortgage rates for American households. And with Britain voting for Brexit, they could go even lower.”

However, the lower rates caused by Brexit may be short lived as Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin pointed out in a recent post:

“While the departure of the UK from the European Union has driven down the 10-year bond, and thus mortgage rates, we expect them to rebound later in the year as uncertainty over the economic consequences of the departure lifts.”

Bottom Line

Rates are already at historic lows. The UK’s exit from the EU almost certainly guarantees they will remain low (and possibly go lower) over the next few months. If you were thinking of buying your first home or trading up to the house of your dreams, this may be the time to act. The cost of money may never be better for a potential buyer.

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Gap Between Homeowner’s & Appraiser’s Opinions Narrows Slightly

Gap Between Homeowner’s & Appraiser’s Opinions Narrows Slightly | Simplifying The Market

In today’s housing market, where supply is very low and demand is very high, home values are increasing rapidly. One major challenge in such a market is the bank appraisal.

If prices are surging, it is difficult for appraisers to find adequate, comparable sales (similar houses in the neighborhood that closed recently) to defend the price when performing the appraisal for the bank.

Every month, Quicken Loans measures the disparity between what a homeowner believes their house is worth as compared to an appraiser’s evaluation in their Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). Here is a chart showing that difference for each of the last 12 months.

Gap Between Homeowner’s & Appraiser’s Opinions Narrows Slightly | Simplifying The Market

The gap between the homeowner vs. appraiser’s opinion has started to head in the right direction (closer to even), as June saw a slight decrease from May’s -1.95% to -1.89% nationally.

Homeowners in the western part of the country, however, have been pleasantly surprised as their homes have appraised higher than they expected. Denver received its highest HPPI last month as homes came in an average of 3.28% higher than the homeowner believed it would. Nine of the twelve metro areas that had a positive HPPI last month were located in the west.

Quicken Loans’ Chief Economist, Bob Walters explains:

“The hot housing markets along the West Coast are growing quicker than owners realize, giving way to higher than expected prices for buyers and more home equity for existing owners.  

On the other hand, the housing markets are more balanced in the East and Midwest, leading owners to be slightly over-enthusiastic about their home’s appreciation.”

Bottom Line 

Every house on the market has to be sold twice; once to a prospective buyer and then to the bank (through the bank’s appraisal). With escalating prices, the second sale might be even more difficult than the first. If you are planning on entering the housing market this year, let’s get together to talk about what’s happening in our area.

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Hurry Up and List your House TODAY!!

Hurry Up and List your House TODAY!! | Simplifying The Market

That headline might be a little aggressive. However, as the data on the 2016 housing market begins to roll in, we can definitely say one thing: If you are considering selling, IT IS TIME TO LIST YOUR HOME!

The May numbers are not in yet, but the April numbers were sensational. Jonathon Smoke, Chief Economist at realtor.com, explained:

“We had a triple crown of April home sales reports, so 2016 is in the pole position to earn best year of home sales in a decade.”

And Freddie Mac also expressed a tremendous optimism regarding home sales for the rest of the summer:

“Home sales typically rise in the spring and summer months, and we anticipate acceleration in home sales that will surpass 2007’s pace by late summer.”

The only challenge to the market is a severe lack of inventory. A balanced market would have a full six-month supply of homes for sale. Currently, there is less than a five-month supply of inventory. This represents a decrease in supply of 3.6% from the same time last year.

Bottom Line

With demand increasing and supply dropping, this may be the perfect time to get the best price for your home. Let’s get together to see whether that is the case in your neighborhood.

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The Nutley Real Estate Show Coming Soon!

Where we will be discussing buying and selling homes in Northern NJ as well as Marketing advice for Real Estate agents
Nutley Real Estate Show

Wall Street Journal: Housing Recovery Picks Up Steam

Wall Street Journal: Housing Recovery Picks Up Steam | Simplifying The Market

Yesterday, we ran a post quoting major housing experts on the increasing strength of the U.S. housing market. We were pleasantly surprised that, on the same day, the Wall Street Journal decided to run a front page story titled, “Housing Recovery Picks Up Steam” (article available to WSJ subscribers).

Wall Street Journal: Housing Recovery Picks Up Steam | Simplifying The Market

The first paragraph of the article says it best:

“Home prices are back to near-record highs across the U.S. amid rising demand and supply constraints, a sign that the lopsided housing-market recovery of the past five years is gaining some strength.” (emphasis added).

What about the struggles in the economy?

Some openly question how the real estate market can be gaining ground if the overall economy is still struggling. According to the WSJ, it is:

“Despite the unbalanced recovery, Federal Reserve officials have seen housing as a bright spot for the U.S. economy in recent years. Residential construction has contributed to overall economic output for eight straight quarters, expanding at a 17% annual rate in a first quarter marked by slow growth in other sectors.”

Bottom Line

The housing market is gaining strength and all indicators point to an even stronger real estate market moving forward.

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